Big Projects, Bad Predictions…

Big projects shape the way we live our lives; how we travel, how science progresses, how we access healthcare and how our nations are defended. They also influence how our investments and pension funds perform and how much tax we pay. Reading this publication suggests you recognise the importance of big projects and care about how they are selected, managed and governed.

If you follow the news you will see that many big projects are ‘problematic’. However, nothing much ever seems to be done about improving things with the same mistakes being made again and again.

My name is Stephen Cresswell, I have worked as a project analyst and forecaster for over twenty years.  In my view many of the problems we see with big projects are addressable. My objective is for solutions to find their way into government policy and management practice. I believe that subscribers will help me to achieve this.  

As a free subscriber you will receive two or more articles per month covering topics including:

  • prediction in theory and practice

  • relevant insights from management science, psychology and social science

  • practitioner experience

  • guest expert and observer views

  • project in the news

Each published article is intended as a short read and will cover only a single concept. Other articles will bring one or more concepts together and explain how they are interrelated. Podcasts will be short and focussed.

I have a strict policy of not writing about client projects.  However I am planning a single exception - such is the magnitude of the public interest. I am currently looking into how this can be done responsibly and without insurmountable legal and financial trouble. Watch this space. 

Community Forecasts

As part of the newsletter we will be undertaking ‘wisdom of the crowds’ type forecasts. These will use the same methodology as I used for a community forecast for the completion of the London Crossrail project, which provided an accurate forecast before the project itself did. A series of free articles will explain how. Community forecasts will initially be free becoming paid subscribers only in the future.

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Stephen Cresswell
Independent expert specialising in project forecasting.