Big Projects, Bad Predictions

Big Projects, Bad Predictions

Home
Notes
Archive
About
Reassessing HS2: Is the London to Birmingham Route Still Viable?
Examining the DfT's assumptions behind the continuation of HS2
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
HS2: Sunday Times Investigation
The Sunday Times approached me in late September to contribute to their investigation into HS2.
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
HS2: Was the UK Parliament misled about costs?
Analysis and timeline of advice given to Parliament by Government and the Civil Service about the costs and benefits of HS2 Phase 2a.
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
Most Popular
View all
HS2: Sunday Times Investigation
 • Stephen Cresswell
Vulnerable Probabilities
 • Stephen Cresswell
Crossrail – Should we be cross? Part 2
 • Stephen Cresswell
Victoria 2026 Commonwealth Games Cancellation
 • Stephen Cresswell
Crossrail – Should we be cross? Part 1
 • Stephen Cresswell
Crossrail - Should we be cross? Part 3
 • Stephen Cresswell
Vulnerable Probabilities
How assessments of likelihood can be exploited to manipulate forecasts
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
The High Cost of Misrepresentation in Project Management
Inefficiency, Waste, and Delays
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
HS2 Risk Director Discusses Playing with Numbers
‘‘hopefully we are all technical enough, mathematical enough, to understand how to play around with the numbers to get the output that we want’’
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
Value for Money: How does HS2 compare?
HS2 give the Benefit to Cost ratio for the wider project, Phase 1, 2a and 2b West, as 1.2.
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
Victoria 2026 Commonwealth Games Cancellation
Observations on a recent controversial decision
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
Solutions – ‘Citizen Panels’ for Major Projects
How to ensure citizens interests are reflected in publicly funded projects
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
Crossrail - Should we be cross? Part 3
Overspends have real consequences...
 • 
Stephen Cresswell
Big Projects, Bad Predictions
Big Projects, Bad Predictions
Holding public projects accountable: Exposing the impact of flawed predictions, poor decisions and their costly outcomes

Big Projects, Bad Predictions

AboutArchive
© 2025 Stephen Cresswell
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture