Big Projects, Bad Predictions

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HS2: Sunday Times Investigation
The Sunday Times approached me in late September to contribute to their investigation into HS2. The journalists have done excellent work in…
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Stephen Cresswell
HS2: Was the UK Parliament misled about costs?
Analysis and timeline of advice given to Parliament by Government and the Civil Service about the costs and benefits of HS2 Phase 2a.
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Stephen Cresswell
Vulnerable Probabilities
How assessments of likelihood can be exploited to manipulate forecasts
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Stephen Cresswell
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Vulnerable Probabilities
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Crossrail – Should we be cross? Part 2
 • Stephen Cresswell
Victoria 2026 Commonwealth Games Cancellation
 • Stephen Cresswell
Crossrail – Should we be cross? Part 1
 • Stephen Cresswell
BBC Tomorrow's World - Review of the 1970's
 • Stephen Cresswell
The High Cost of Misrepresentation in Project Management
Inefficiency, Waste, and Delays
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Stephen Cresswell
HS2 Risk Director Discusses Playing with Numbers
‘‘hopefully we are all technical enough, mathematical enough, to understand how to play around with the numbers to get the output that we want’’ HS2…
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Stephen Cresswell
Value for Money: How does HS2 compare?
HS2 give the Benefit to Cost ratio for the wider project, Phase 1, 2a and 2b West, as 1.2. This means that, according to the modelling and analysis, for…
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Stephen Cresswell
Victoria 2026 Commonwealth Games Cancellation
Observations on a recent controversial decision
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Stephen Cresswell
Solutions – ‘Citizen Panels’ for Major Projects
How to ensure citizens interests are reflected in publicly funded projects
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Stephen Cresswell
Crossrail - Should we be cross? Part 3
Overspends have real consequences...
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Stephen Cresswell
Crossrail – Should we be cross? Part 2
An unpopular congestion & pollution tax is needed to cover the extra costs
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Stephen Cresswell
Big Projects, Bad Predictions
Big Projects, Bad Predictions
Where Bad Predictions means mistaken and/or dishonest, leading to Bad Decisions. A newsletter for taxpayers and shareholders concerned about our major projects.

Big Projects, Bad Predictions

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